3/3/2021

#MarketCommentary

#AnnualLetter

2020 Annual Letter (full PDF):

Dear Clients,

As in every Long Game Financial (“LGF”) letter, we will begin by reiterating our investment approach, which remains constant without regard to whether the stock market is stable or volatile:

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11/4/2020

#MarketCommentary

2020 US presidential election update, 11/4/2020:

Dear Clients, Friends, and Colleagues,

Good morning.

I write to share briefly my thoughts on what the most likely outcome of last night's general election means for the stock market and LGF's investments.

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7/5/2020

#MarketCommentary

2020 Mid-Year Update, 7/5/2020:

Dear Clients,

Our first-half 2020 market update letter contains three sections as follows:

I. Long Game Financial (“LGF”) before, during and after peak COVID-19 market fear

II. Interest rates, government stimulus, the demand effects of COVID-19…and the 2020 tech rally

III. Closing

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5/14/2020

#MarketCommentary

COVID-19 update #3, 5/14/2020:

This market update note has three sections. Each section is approximately two pages long.

Table of contents:

Section I. Where we began: revisiting and updating the five key points from Long Game Financial’s (“LGF”) 3/5/2020 and 3/25/2020 COVID-19 market updates

Section II. Where are we now: LGF’s top-down economic base case currently

Section III. Three points regarding the stock market for clients to keep in mind

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3/25/2020

#MarketCommentary

COVID-19 update #2, 3/25/2020:

As of 3/5/2020, the COVID-19 virus was primarily a Chinese phenomenon with a limited global presence. China’s solution was to implement draconian physical isolation measures that seems to have slowed successfully this virus’s proliferation.

The below graph of officially-confirmed COVID-19 cases in China —via Johns Hopkins University—illustrates coronavirus’s plateau in China. Although it is often difficult to trust Chinese data, today that country does appear to be returning (little by little) to business as usual. …

3/5/2020

#MarketCommentary

COVID-19 update #1, 3/5/2020 - Thoughts on the economic effects of coronavirus in light of heightened market volatility:

In its attempt to contain coronavirus, the Chinese government took unprecedented actions this year that, as a side effect, caused the Chinese economy to contract meaningfully. For example, in February 2020 China's manufacturing and services purchasing managers indices (PMIs), respectively, signaled record and near-record economic contraction (link). 

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2/19/2020

#BusinessUpdate

#AnnualLetter

I. 2019 Annual Letter excerpt - [LGF business update, for clients only]:

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2/19/2020

#InvestingFrameworks

#AnnualLetter

II. 2019 Annual Letter excerpt - LGF’s investment frameworks within the context of power laws:

The axiom in the venture capital (VC) world is that investment returns follow a power law distribution, which means that a small number of winning VC investments generate the bulk of the overall return and offset copious losing investments. Put differently, the average VC investment has been a winner thanks to outsized contributions from early investments in firms like Google and Facebook, but the median VC investment has been mediocre. Venture capitalists plant many acorns, but seldom does one become an oak.

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2/19/2020

#CompanyAnalysis

#AnnualLetter

III. 2019 Annual Letter excerpt - [Company write-up, for clients only]:

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2/19/2020

#EconomicAnalysis

#MarketCommentary

#AnnualLetter

IV. 2019 Annual Letter excerpt - Macroeconomic overview:

Despite the S&P 500’s +31% total return in 2019 (which clients should consider in the context of the S&P’s -4% total return for 2018), LGF’s macroeconomic outlook has remained unchanged since 2018: we continue to be optimistic about the US economy because the US consumer is financially strong relative to history, we believe there is significant room for the US housing market to expand due to insufficient home supply in many parts of the country, and we remain concerned about the long-term sustainability of China’s economic growth model.

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7/10/2019

#CompanyAnalysis

#InvestingFrameworks

I. 2019 Mid-Year Update, 7/10/2019 - [Company write-up, for clients only]:

When you invest with LGF you own neither the economy nor the stock market. Rather, you own a portfolio of stocks of generally US-domiciled companies that in our judgment fit our CAM Framework. As a reminder, CAM stands for Competitively-advantaged, Attractively-valued, and Managerially-aligned.

For more on CAM visit our website here and review an excerpt from our 2018 letter here.

LGF’s CAM Framework continues to compel us to focus our time …

7/10/2019

#MarketCommentary

II. 2019 Mid-Year Update, 7/10/2019 - Market commentary:

The last twelve months demonstrate how rapidly stock market sentiment can change. In September 2018 the S&P 500 stock index reached an all-time high—only to subsequently generate a -14% total return during fourth quarter 2018. Fourth quarter 2018 was the worst single quarter for the S&P 500 since 2011.

In our 2018 letter, we argued that fourth quarter 2018’s decline in stock prices and investor sentiment was primarily due to four factors: …

2/15/2019

#CompanyAnalysis

#AnnualLetter

II. 2018 Annual Letter excerpt - [Company write-up, for clients only]:

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